A calibrated system for measuring what matters — built specifically for Shepherd Boy Farms.
Prepared for Ashton Hood · Re-Kickoff · April 2026
Source: BigQuery / Shopify — validated 2026-04-13. All figures are DTC website only.
On April 9, a report went out with data errors. Here's what happened and how we're fixing it permanently.
Every DTC brand's growth is powered by three interconnected systems. These motions aren't separate — they feed each other in a compounding loop.
When aligned, every cycle generates more fuel than the last. That's a flywheel.
When misaligned, you're burning money into a void. That's where SBF's paid acquisition was — 0.3× ROAS on meal ads.
The framework determines what we measure. If a metric doesn't map to a motion, we don't report it.
Meta/Google ads bring cold traffic. Organic search (60% of sessions) pulls in high-intent pet owners researching freeze-dried food.
Customer lands on site → browses products → adds to cart → checks out on Shopify. No sales team needed for DTC.
Consumable repurchase cycle (treats every 2–4 weeks, meals every 3–6 weeks) + Subscribe & Save + email/SMS flows.
Key insight: SBF's motion combination (Paid + Product-Led) puts you in the Medium CAC band. The treats-first strategy only works if the retention flywheel graduates customers up the product ladder.
A $22 one-time treat buyer can't fund acquisition. A $603 repeat buyer can. The product ladder is the bridge.
Each rung deepens engagement and increases customer value. The key question isn't "what's our ROAS?" — it's "are customers climbing the ladder?"
This is the ultimate health metric for SBF. If the ladder works, everything works. If it doesn't, no amount of ad spend can fix the economics.
Before we can evaluate any channel, we need the financial physics of your business. This one formula tells us if the flywheel can spin.
These are the numbers only you have. Everything else we can pull from the data.
Every metric maps to a motion. Every metric has a verified source and known gotchas.
| # | Metric | Definition | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARPU | Annual revenue per DTC customer | Exact |
| 2 | Gross Margin | (Revenue - COGS - Shipping) / Revenue | You Provide |
| 3 | Target CAC | ARPU × Margin × (Payback / 12) | Blocked |
| 4 | Blended CAC | Total spend / new customers | Exact |
| 5 | LTV:CAC | Lifetime value / acquisition cost | Directional |
| # | Metric | Definition | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sessions by Channel | Website visits grouped by traffic source | Exact |
| 7 | New Customers | First-time buyers in period | Exact |
| 8 | CAC by Channel | Channel spend / attributed new customers | Directional |
| 9 | Channel ROAS | DTC revenue attributed to channel / spend | Verified |
| 10 | Site CVR | Orders / Sessions | Exact |
| # | Metric | Definition | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | DTC Revenue | Website-only net sales (excludes Faire, samples, wholesale) | Exact |
| 12 | AOV | Revenue / Orders (DTC only) | Exact |
| 13 | Product Category Mix | Revenue % by treats / toppers / meals / premium | Directional |
| 14 | Subscription MRR | Monthly recurring revenue from Subscribe & Save | Exact |
| 15 | Active Subscribers | Non-cancelled S&S enrollments | Exact |
| # | Metric | Definition | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Repeat Purchase Rate | % of buyers with 2+ orders | Exact |
| 17 | Cohort Retention | % of each month's new customers who reorder | Directional |
| 18 | LTV | AOV × Purchase Frequency × Customer Lifespan | Directional |
| 19 | Time Between Orders | Avg days from order 1 to order 2 | Directional |
| 20 | Product Ladder Progression | % of treat buyers who later buy toppers → meals | Directional |
Revenue reconciliation · Meta conversion accuracy · $0 order detection · Subscription renewal dedup · Data freshness
Run all 20 metrics from current data. Run 5 sanity checks. Prepare our numbers.
Walk through the growth engine model: motions, flywheels, why these metrics.
You share COGS, shipping, budget. We unlock the growth economics layer live.
Compare our metrics to yours. Root-cause every mismatch together.
Document all definitions. Set up automated QA. Ship your live scorecard.
Calibration isn't a one-time event. It's a rhythm that ensures the numbers stay accurate as your business evolves.
We measure what the flywheels need. We verify against your sources. We caveat what we can't prove. And we get better every month.
Next step: Ashton provides the 5 inputs → we unlock the growth economics → ship your live scorecard.